In just 100+ days, the virus has disrupted human lives across 204 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harboured in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship). The numbers touched one million mark recently and death rate is about 5%.
In the history of mankind this is first humanitarian crisis at this scale. For the first time the most intelligent and sophisticated species on the earth (human beings) are fighting a war against a microbial organism. Let us look at some of the strategies used in this battle. On a meta level the goal is to contain the disease and/or delay the spread. AND is a stretch goal. OR is a must. It is getting more and more clear that containment efforts is at-least 14 months away with vaccines for SARS-Cov2.
At the core, human beings are carriers of this virus and the transmission is human to human. If we break the chain, the transmission is contained. If human beings don't give it to another human being, the infection is contained. As simple as that. But is it that simple given our complex lives given the variety of agendas we carry (geo-political, social, survival etc)
Different countries are trying different strategies and here is a gist of everything that is going on.
Geographical lockdown as a strategy. This way all movements are limited and controlled to a large extent. Some governments are imposing non compliance penalties to enhance the probability of success. Travel bans, border locks, home quarantine or ward quarantine are all tactics to implement the larger strategy. eg: China, Hubei Province
Voluntary social distancing as a strategy. With awareness if people can physically themselves by remaining at least 6 feet (about 1.8 meters) apart from anyone they encounter outside their homes. This way the virus that can remain viable in aerosols for 3 hours can be transmitted through contaminated surfaces, and it easily spreads through coughing and sneezing. The 6 feet of distance is designed to put up a roadblock to the aerosolised and droplet methods of transmission. eg: most countries across the world
Enhanced testing capacity as a strategy. Countries that feel lockdown is not a reasonable choice for economic reasons latch on to an aggressive testing regime. South Korea is able to test 20000 subjects per day. So far they have tested almost 300,000 people. This allows them to spot on the cases which enables them to strictly quarantine. Now with innovations like phone boot style of testing they have increased their ability to test by 10x. eg: south Korea
Acting early as a strategy. Bringing in a sense of panic and getting ready to deal with the pandemic has helped a few countries delay the spread of infection. eg: Ice land, Taiwan
Herd Immunity as a strategy. Some countries believe that when 60 percent of their population is infected , the whole population immunity enhancement will protect them on a long term. This strategy calls for an increased number of deaths in a short term for a long term benefit.eg: Stockholm
Contact tracing and quarantine as a strategy. eg: India
Working on the extreme ends of the normal distribution as a strategy. Handling only 60+ age group and subjects with comorbidity as first priority for medical care and home quarantine as a tactic for everyone below 60+ years of age and normal levels of immunity.
Adequate PPE (personal protective equipment) as a strategy. Getting ready to handle the medical load when the infection hits trusting that 90% will be mild and only 10% will be severe and critical. eg: china and now many countries.
A combination of the strategies can also be used and some countries do it proactively to flatten the curve and delay the spread. Despite knowing all the strategies above why are countries not gearing up to this crisis you may ask? The simple answer is misalignment of policies between Federal vs State, not being decisive aka slow to act, prioritising business as usual over humanitarian crisis, negligence and ignorance are some of the pitfalls to be aware of.
As a strategist it is innate (occupational hazard) to deconstruct the factors and variables and see the problem statement in a different light. This is what i could absorb by assimilating all the information that is floating around.
